Demographic dynamics and coastal erosion on the central coast of Sergipe: An integrated analysis from the perspective of general systems theory

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between demographic dynamics and coastal erosion processes along the Central Coast of Sergipe from 2000 to 2022, with emphasis on the municipalities of Aracaju and Barra dos Coqueiros. We adopt an integrated approach grounded in General Systems Theory (GST), which conceives geographic space as an open system in which natural and anthropogenic components interact continuously, as formulated by Bertalanffy (1968). We used census data (IBGE), Sentinel-2 satellite imagery processed in Google Earth Engine with application of the MNDWI index, and thematic maps of land use/land cover (MapBiomas), geology, soils, and geomorphology, and conducted the analysis across multiple scales (regional, local, and sectoral). The results reveal a spatial correlation between areas of higher population density and shoreline reaches exhibiting pronounced retreat, especially in urbanized zones over fragile terrains characterized by sandy soils and Holocene deposits. We also observed the loss of natural vegetation cover and the advance of urbanization over sensitive ecosystems such as mangroves and fluvio-marine plains. The integrated analysis shows that the absence of territorial planning and unsuitable land occupation (from a landscape perspective) increases the environmental vulnerability (associated risk) of the coastal zone. We conclude that coastal management should articulate physical, demographic, and spatial variables, adopting instruments such as Ecological–Economic Coastal Zoning and systematic remote-sensing monitoring. The study contributes to improving adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of climate change and urban growth in coastal areas.